My Predictions For 2022
01 Jan 2022
I decided it would be fun to do some predictions for 2022. This time next year I'll follow up to see if any of them came true.
So last night, while walking the dog, I was listening to the latest episode of Late Night Linux where they were talking about their 2021 predictions and made new predictions for 2022.
I decided it would be fun to do something similar on this blog. So I'm going to make 3 predictions; they probably won't come true, but hey, it's a bit of fun, right?
Ok, with my usual pre-waffle out of the way, let's get on with it...
Prediction 1 - Ubuntu will fork Gnome
A few of the guys on LNL had similar predictions to this, and I think it's feasible. We have already seen Pop!_OS do something similar with COSMIC, and with all the issues coming out of the Gnome camp recently, I don't think it's a longshot to predict that Ubuntu will follow System 76 and fork Gnome.
At the moment the Ubuntu team take stock Gnome and embed a couple of extensions to add some functionality back. As I understand it, they integrate Dash to Panel for their Unity-esque lefthand panel.
They also add the AppIndicator to bring back the system tray icons that many know and love, as well as a few other system tweaks to (in my opinion) improve things over stock Gnome.
This is getting harder and harder to do as the Gnome team are constantly moving the goal posts. To me, it makes more sense for Ubuntu to fork Gnome and crack on with their own implementation.
But Kev, they tried that and Unity failed!
-- All the readers
You're absolutely right, dear reader. The Ubuntu team did try that before with Unity, and it did fail. However if they were to fork it this time around, I would see it as somewhat of a soft-fork (I think I just made that term up) where it would track closely to vanilla Gnome, but Ubuntu manage their own stuff in-house.
This would potentially have the added benefit of being able to contribute some code back to Gnome too.
On the other hand, this could all be complete and utter rubbish and the Ubuntu desktop team are happy to continue to work with Gnome. I'm probably wrong here. I suppose we will see a year from now. 🙃
Prediction 2 - Microsoft will release an ARM based laptop
Will from the LNL team predicted for 2021 that there will be an ARM based Linux laptop to rival the M1. Unfortunately that didn't come to fruition.
I for one would love to see the likes of System 76 come up with something ARM based, but I just don't see it happening any time soon. It seems to me that hardware development in the Open Source space is glacially slow when compared to their proprietary competitors.
System 76, as with many other Linux-first manufacturers, mostly work with Clevo chassis. The result of which is laptop hardware that's behind the curve when compared to Apple and Microsoft.
I have no doubt that System 76 et al will get there, I just don't think it will be for another few years yet. Maybe my 2025 predictions will contain a Linux-first ARM laptop.
Yes, yes. I know about the PineBook and PineBook Pro. But what I'm talking about here is an ARM laptop that can at least come close to the M1 in terms of battery life and performance.
I do think there is plenty of space in the market right now for another ARM-based laptop that has stupidly good performance and amazing battery life. That's where Microsoft come in.
I don't think that they will develop their own chips, like Apple did. Instead, I think that they're more likely to work with one of the large ARM chip manufacturers to produce an official ARM Surface laptop.
Whether it will compete or out-perform the M1 chips is another matter entirely though.
Prediction 3 - I will NOT make significant changes to this site
This is a bonus prediction and just a bit of fun. It's somewhat of a meme at this point among my followers that I'm constantly changing shit on this site.
I mean, I don't know where it comes from? I started with Ghost, then flipped to Grav, then went to WordPress, then to Jekyll, only to go back to WordPress and finally back to Jekyll. I don't think it's that many changes. Do you? 😜
Ok, ok. So I'm constantly pissing about with this site. But I think I'm starting to find my mojo with Jekyll and it's related workflow. So I'm making this prediction to try and hold myself to account so that I stop pissing about with the nuts and bolts of this site.
I'm not just talking about platform though either. I also have a terrible habit of re-designing my site every 5 minutes. I really like the current design, so I'm going to try and stick with it for a while.
So yeah, during 2022, I predict that there will be no I've changed platform again... posts and there will be no re-designs. It's all gonna be Jekyll and shades of blue for the entirety of 2022.
We. Shall. See...
There you have it, those are my predictions for 2022. What do you think? Am I close to the mark, or am I way off? Feel free to use the button below to send me an email so we can chat about it.
Or, better yet, if you have your own blog, why not write your own predictions for 2022?
Finally, I'd just like to wish you a very happy New Year. Let's hope we all have a better time of it than in 2021.
Something tells me we're not out of the woods yet though...